This research applied a simulation-based evaluation of statistical methods for assessing statutory species abundance targets in England using the England Species Abundance Indicator (ESAI). Building on an earlier scoping study, the research reviewed the ESAI’s construction and historical behaviour, including the role of smoothing and uncertainty in the published indicator.
The research applied a range of statistical tests to understand how reliably the ESAI could potentially determine whether the long-term decline in biodiversity has been halted and then reversed, and whether such conclusions can be made with confidence.
Disclaimer
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS) was commissioned by the Office for Environmental Protection to develop and test robust statistical methodologies that assess whether the long-term decline in biodiversity has been halted, as required by law, by meeting targets to first halt and then reverse the decline in species abundance. The views provided in this report are those of BioSS and do not represent the opinion or position of the OEP. The outputs of the project have supported the OEP’s ongoing monitoring and assessment of the government’s progress with the statutory targets and wider commitments in the Environmental Improvement Plan in England.